Mantic

AI · Forecasting · Enterprise Software

Funding

Mantic raises $25M seed after its AI beat humans at Metaculus Cup

By ignoring crowd consensus, the system called a presidential election and a chart-topping single that human forecasters got wrong.

• Mantic, a London-based AI forecasting startup, raised $25M in a seed round led by Radical Ventures and Balderton Capital, at a valuation reported near $90M.
• Founded in 2024 by ex-Google DeepMind scientist Toby Shevlane and Ben Day, Mantic specializes frontier AI models specifically to forecast real-world events.
• In the 2026 Metaculus Cup, Mantic outperformed every human contestant and all but one rival bot by avoiding the herd mentality that misled human forecasters.
• Mantic gave Colombian candidate Abelardo De La Espriella about a 40% chance of winning the presidency versus a roughly 30% human consensus, and he won.
• AI entrants also took second and fifth place in the tournament, marking the first time technology dominated a forecasting contest long seen as a human stronghold.
• Governments and companies have long relied on slow, bias-prone expert panels for risk forecasting, and a system that beats them at speed and accuracy could reshape how organizations plan for geopolitical and market shocks.